Overcoming the Impact of Global Epidemics and Accelerating t

Chips, especially smart chips, are the core of supporting new economic development and new infrastructure investment. The global pandemic of the COVID-19 is a major test of the completeness and competitiveness of the smart chip industry chain in various countries, and further highlights the importance of smart chips in the global economic development. China should further overcome the impact of the global epidemic, grasp the "window period" to further promote the development of the smart chip industry, accelerate the layout of the industrial chain, further build a relatively perfect smart chip industrial system, and support the high-quality development of China's economy and society.

The COVID-19 delayed the recovery of the global smart chip industry, and even led to further contraction of the industry. Affected by the slowing growth of demand for solid-state storage, mobile phones, PCs and other terminals and global trade frictions, the global semiconductor market sales in 2019 was 412.1 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decline of 12.1%, hitting a 10-year low. As the COVID-19 spreads worldwide, overall, affected by the epidemic, although the proportion of the smart chip industry will increase in structure, the overall scale has a very high probability of decline. International research organization IDC estimates that the global semiconductor industry's revenue will shrink by nearly 80% in 2020.

The impact of the epidemic on the main links of the global smart chip industry chain shows a high heterogeneity. The epidemic has greatly affected the normal international trade and resource circulation, and has also caused a huge impact on the smart chip industry, which is highly subdivided in the industrial chain.

(1) The upstream equipment manufacturing enterprises are affected by the downstream demand, and the order quantity and operating revenue are affected. For example, ASML, a Dutch photolithographic equipment giant, lowered its revenue forecast for the first quarter of 2020, reduced its revenue forecast by about 1/4, and cancelled its stock repurchase plan of 20 billion dollars; Material suppliers have been greatly affected, especially the U.S. and Japanese enterprises that are in a dominant position in this field, not only need to resolve the impact of the epidemic on transportation and demand, but also face the impact of Japan South Korea trade friction and Sino US trade friction. Some Japanese enterprises have relocated globally to consolidate their position in the industrial chain.

(2) Chip design enterprises are less affected by the epidemic, and telecommuting after home isolation reduces the impact of the epidemic to some extent; Manufacturing enterprises need a high cleanliness environment, which is highly consistent with the living environment required by the epidemic situation, and the industry production is relatively smooth. However, with the pandemic of the global epidemic, the isolation and restriction of mobility policies generally adopted by various countries will affect the transportation of silicon chips, photoresists, mask plates, electronic gases, wet chemicals and other materials, and the continuity of production of related enterprises will be greatly affected; Sealed test enterprises belong to the industry with relatively high human investment in the smart chip industry chain, and will be more affected by the epidemic, which will have a systematic impact on the supply cycle of smart chips. In general, the design manufacturing seal testing chain is driven by front-end design enterprises. In the case of insufficient short-term demand, the counter cyclical investment of design enterprises is constrained by their financial capacity.

(3) Manufacturers of end consumer goods are most directly affected. The economic slowdown and personnel and traffic control affect both demand and supply. For example, Apple and Samsung have delayed the sale of new products.

While the epidemic has affected the global smart chip industry chain, it further highlights the importance of the chip industry in economic and social development. China should take advantage of its leading time in epidemic prevention and control, increase policy support, accelerate the layout of the industrial chain and technological breakthroughs in key areas, achieve curve overtaking in some industrial links, and improve the autonomy of the industrial chain.